The State of UCLA Basketball

Before we begin, let's preface this piece by saying it has been long overdue. So if we're covering some topics that would've been more relevant in November, not March, my apologies. It's time for a massive brain dump and reach that cathartic state of unleashing all the thoughts that have been fermenting for the past 5 months. Hopefully this will be done in an hour and I can go back to trying to figure out how to use a zero forcing equalizer or some BS like that.

It is mid-March at UCLA, which means two things. 1) It's finals week. 2) It's March Madness season, which naturally diverts all attention from finals and into the much more important task of basketball. So, without further ado, here is the state of UCLA basketball.

Here's a rough outline of where I'm g

Publish Post

oing with this.

1) 2008-2009 Bruins vs. the past three Final Four squads
2) Seniors
3) Which player we miss the most
4) Jrue Holiday
5) The future
6) HERE. NOW. UCLA
7) How far we will go in the NCAA tournament

Over the last five seasons, I've probably attended roughly 90-100 of our 176 games. Of the ones I haven't seen in person, I've managed to catch almost all the rest of them on TV. That's a lot of basketball.

But for the purpose of this discussion, we need to examine the 05-06, 06-07, and 07-08 squads. All three squads reached the Final Four. And even though none of the teams managed to win it all, we'd have to categorize all three seasons as resounding successes.

1. 2008-2009 vs. 2005-2006, 2006-2007, 2007-2008

So what made those three Final Four teams so special? Defense. Defense, defense, defense. DEFENSE. Do you remember how ugly those games looked? How routinely the opposing team would spend 30 seconds dribbling around, swinging the ball frantically, before driving to the hoop and missing a layup? Or how a hard double team would trap a surprised big in the corner, forcing a turnover? That is what defined the Bruins three Final Fours. DEFENSE.

50-30. That was the final score of a game against Washington State. The Cougars (granted, in the Dick Bennett slowdown era) managed to score 30 points in 40 minutes. This year? They pumped in 82 points in 40 minutes. That was the extreme example, but it wasn't far from an everyday Bruin final score. When we beat Memphis in the Elite Eight? 50-45. LSU in the Final Four? 59-45. These final scores are ingrained my head.

My memories from the past five years aren't Josh Shipp threes, Darren Collison drives, or Alfred Aboya dunks (well okay, maybe the teabagging on NOAH). No, the fondest memories are Aboya hedging on a screen, forcing a 6' PG to go 15 feet laterally across the floor, away from the hoop, to get past Aboya. Or Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (we'll get to him more in a bit) frantically doubling in the post, forcing an errant pass and a subsequent Josh Shipp throwdown. Or Arron Afflalo throttling Ronald Steele, forcing an offline three and a Bruin victory.

That's the difference between the old Bruin teams and this one. No one is willing to get down and dirty. Where we used to have Lorenzo Mata playing enforcer by playing solid straight-up D, we now have Drew Gordon trying to swat everything into the seats (though he's doing an admirable job). Luc Richard Mbah a Moute used to snatch every board in sight, now we have Nikola Dragovic trying to bat everything in the air like it's an effin volleyball (we could easily have Diefenbach do that). Alfred Aboya used to take charges all day. Now... well, he still does. Some good things don't change.

This squad is, however, actually much more talented offensively. Ken Pomeroy is a college basketball statistics guru, rating teams on their offensive and defensive efficiencies, adjusting for pace (i.e. quick tempo teams like UNC and UW vs. slow teams like WSU) and strength of opponent. Take a look at our overall ratings (offense/defense/overall) from the past few years:

05-06: 28/3/3 (Loss to Florida in title game)
06-07: 23/2/6 (Loss to Florida in Final Four)
07-08: 7/3/3 (Loss to Memphis in Final Four)
08-09: 3/37/9 (TBD)

One of these is not like the others, one of these doesn't belong... so whereas our offense (despite popular belief) is actually relatively strong, our defense has been decidedly subpar. And although many think that our inside presence is lacking offensively, do remember that we made Final Fours with offensive luminaries like Lorenzo Mata and Ryan Hollins starting down low.

So there is quantifiable evidence that shows that this 08-09 squad is missing defense (and rebounding too, but that's a whole other story). What about something a little less easy to quantify?

Heart. Try quantifying that. Tough, isn't it? It's not that this Bruin squad doesn't have heart, it's just that it's selective when it decides to show it. The 05-06 squad had a leader. Jordan Farmar. Whether he was a douche or not is another story, but that was Farmar's squad, and he wasn't afraid to tell you if you were messing up. 06-07? Arron Afflalo. He was the heart, the soul, and he made sure no one slacked. Last year? Well, to be quite frank, I am of the belief that there was no heart. I think we were just that good to get away with it. Kevin Love was mighty talented, Russell Westbrook flew high, and I think we got by on pure talent. Which is a perfect segue to...

2. Seniors

But this team ISN'T that talented (not yet, anyway). So naturally the leadership should fall on the mantle of our three seniors (which, oddly, is the first time we've had real seniors since Cedric Bozeman, Ryan Hollins, and THE BIG PLAY MICHAEL FEY). Unfortunately, I don't believe any of them (save one, MAYBE) have the balls in them.

I absolutely adore Alfred Aboya. I think he's a fantastic example of what a student-athlete should be. He's hard-working and intelligent. He's done more with a UCLA education (graduate school) than many do without the burdens of playing basketball. By all accounts he's humorous and dedicated, to the extent that you feel that if Ben Howland ever had a teacher's pet (it'd never happen), it'd be Alfred Aboya.

Somehow, Aboya learned not to foul every three minutes, still takes charges, developed an 18-footer, and I still think that his ability to hedge on screens is one of the most beautiful defensive feats I have ever seen (you show me another 6'9 245 pounder not named LeBron that can move that). Yes, he takes silly shots, no, he can't pass worth a lick, but if you saw what he was three years ago, hell, even one year ago, you can't help but beam.

Josh Shipp? Too cool for school. Only Josh can stare someone down with a throwdown, yet manage to miss a gimme layup (WSU) or get rejected by the rim. Still, he has played with a spark the past month. He's a completely different (and better) player when he decides to go to the hoop.

Praise aside, neither of these two is a leader in the traditional sense. Neither has the fire to refuse to let us lose. Useful players no doubt; killers? Not quite.

Ah, and then, there was one. Darren Collison. If we go anywhere this postseason, it undoubtedly will be on DC's back. He's the only one on this squad (at this time) with the game and the talk to make it happen. And I'd be more in his corner, if I hadn't seen him get smoked by Derrick Rose and Taurean Green the past few years. He's experienced, he has the talent, he has the fire. DC will have to be the man if this team reaches the level of the past three.

The seniors have really stepped up the past few weeks. We don't beat Cal and Stanford in the Bay Area that weekend without all three playing the games of their lives. But as the seniors go, so does the entire team. So if these Bruins are going to be dancing past the first weekend, they will all have to rise to a new level.

3. We miss ________ the most...

Some may say Kevin Love, for his scoring, rebounding, passing (he was pretty damn good). Others may say Russell Westbrook, perhaps the best Howland product to date. Me? I say Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

Look, it's not that I don't appreciate Love or Russ. But we got to Final Fours without them. Hell, we went advanced further without them. But Luc? Luc is a different story. He was, in my mind, undoubtedly the backbone of all three of our teams. DC was a bit player in 05-06. Josh was injured. Aboya, while valuable, was in the shadows for all three. Take all the variables aside, all the players who came and moved on, and who's left? Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

Moute got bagged on a lot the past few seasons. Unfairly, in my opinion. He was a revelation as a freshman. Blocking shots, rebounding, putbacks, he did it all. His game never really progressed, but really all that kept him from being a bonafide star was a consistent jumper. He guarded the best big man every game. He rebounded on BOTH ends of the floor. He cleaned the glass, and finished messy shots left by teammates. Best of all, he needed ZERO plays run for him to be effective.

Last year was really the breaking point. Love clogged the middle and hoarded boards, so it was time for Luc to drift to the outside and, well, miss. But that didn't diminish his contributions on the defensive end. He rotated superbly. He hedged, he blocked out, and he vacuumed rebounds everywhere.

We miss that. Have you watched Drago play defense? He rotates when he feels like it. He flops. He boxes out when he wants to. He would rather tap a loose ball to someone else than secure it with his own hands. Sure, he can shoot the three. And yes, he's a very talented player, and actually quite a useful one, better than I ever could have anticipated. But he's the exact opposite of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. And Luc took us to three straight Final Fours.

4) Jrue Holiday

But alas, Luc has moved on. And been unexpectedly successful. A new era has come, and no one has produced quite as much controversy as #21, Jrue Holiday.

In case you've missed it, here's the spark notes version of Jrue Holiday's brief but controversial collegiate career:
Holiday is billed as the best UCLA guard recruit since Baron Davis --> makes a favorable first impression --> develops difficulty scoring, has one bad defensive outing --> message board posters and fans rip him and think we'd be better without him.

Jrue Holiday is the truth. Maybe not right now, but he WILL be the best guard Ben Howland has produced (except for maybe Russell Westbrook, who is such an athletic freak that who the heck knows will happen). But mark my words, Jrue Holiday will be a successful point guard.

You see, basketball is more about scoring points. It's about passing and sharing, rebounding and defending, anticipating loose balls, and playing help defense. And Jrue Holiday does everything. Ok, so his shot is pretty poor right now. He's obviously lost confidence from the perimeter. He isn't getting the calls when he drives to the hoop, and he's having trouble with his jumper. He's even played defensive without his usual sense of urgency at times. He also has a passive expression on his face and it never looks like he's trying.

But looks are deceiving. You can take the boisterous, overzealous player every time. You know, the one that beats his chest, screams at the sky, and stares down the opposing student section. I'll take the one that puts up and shuts up. Count Jrue as #2. Just because the game is easy for him doesn't mean that he doesn't care.

If you've watched #21, you've realized that he's the best passer Ben Howland has ever had. He makes the type of passes that leave you scratching his head. Do you realize how many turnovers Mike Fey would have this year? He'd be wandering aimlessly when a bullet pass hits him squarely in the paddles (hands) and lands out of bounds. I can't tell you how many times Holiday has made a pass this year that has left me shaking my head.

But that's not all. When in the proper frame of mind, Holiday is a jaguar, stalking around the court. You're not getting around him. He anticipates on help D, he LEADS the Bruins in blocks, and he rebounds like a 6'6 wing. He makes all the little plays that help his team win.

His offensive game obviously needs a little work. I didn't think his jumper was going to be great to begin with, but I'm more shocked at his inability to get to the rim and finish. His handle is good, but out of control at times. The talent is obviously there, but he feels uncomfortable.

And here's the reason why: he's not a shooting guard. He's a point guard. Holiday has played out of position. His natural inclination is to set up others for easy buckets, and get his own when necessary. That, unfortunately, is not the natural role of a 2-guard.

Even worse, DC and Shipp NEED the ball in their hands to be offensive contributors. Darren Collison would be a helluva 2-guard if he had the height, because he's not that great of a passer. Josh Shipp's game is either shoot the ball or... shoot the ball. Where does that leave Holiday? Letting the other two ISO.

Okay, so now what? Well, Jrue will have the opportunity to go pro this offseason and make lots of money as a lottery pick. Is he ready? No. He still has much to improve on offensively, and he could become a real force if he comes back.

But that's where the fan differs from the player. The REAL question is: should he go? And the answer is yes. He has lottery money waiting for him. It's not that he could get exposed and his offensive game will stagnate. It's that players work for the opportunity of making it to the league. When they have the chance, they should take it.

This is one of my biggest beefs with college sports fans. They love their players, but complain and whine and belittle them by saying they're not ready for the league. But if someone offered you $2-3 M after taking your last history final 1st year, would you take the money and run? It may never come back. Of course you would. Why is it any different?

The end goal of an aspiring NBA basketball player isn't to earn wins for UCLA. No, the goal is to make it to the NBA and have a financially successful career. That's what we're all doing, right? You didn't go to UCLA to raise its academic reputation. You went to get a degree to help your career in the future.

Anyway, the bottom line is that Jrue Holiday is legit. Anyone who says otherwise is foolish. Forget the hype, watch the player. And let the kid be.

5) The future

This point really boils to the other four freshmen.

We'll start with the stud... Malcolm Lee. He is going to end up similar to Russell Westbrook in terms of productivity and explosiveness. In limited minutes, he's proven to be an excellent rebounder for his size, a great defender, and energetic on the offensive end. You could actually tell Westbrook had offensive refinement in his first season, even with his struggles. I think Lee is a little behind where Russ was offensively, but is a much better rebounder. I'll bet Malcolm Lee becomes the next face of UCLA basketball.

Jerime Anderson has grown into a very solid, heady point guard. He probably will never reach the Collison/Farmar standard, but then again, I never thought DC would be this good either. At any rate, he's an impressive defender, a very underrated leaper, and a solid initiator. The Bruin PG spot will be in good hands for the next few years.

Drew Gordon is Mr. Energy, and I love it. I'm not sure he has the size needed to bang with the true bigs (but they're a dying breed anyway), but he certainly has the tenacity. Gordon obviously won't back down, and he's got a little cockiness to him. He will also replace Josh Shipp as the most-hated Bruin by opposing fans for the next 3 years. He also earns bonus points for elbowing Daniel Hackett in the face.

J'Mison Morgan. Well, who knows. Anyone who has anything definitive to say is either intimately involved with UCLA basketball or is blowing hot air, because BoBo has only played against scrubbies. Can't draw any conclusions there.

6) HERE. NOW. UCLA

Back to the present. What do we need to do to make a run in this tournament?

First and foremost, we need to care. We didn't care against USC. They absolutely deserved that win, and that's an extremely painful thing for me to say. But the Trojans earned it, they showed up and wanted it, while we were content to launch 3-pointers and give up rebounds and second chance points. Just because we're UCLA and have been to three straight Final Fours doesn't entitle us to anything. This is where I'm particularly disappointed in DC, and I'm not even talking about the SC game with his bum back. He is the leader, and he can't let us lose close games to ASUx2 and WSU (in particular). His quotes have obviously been indicating that all that matters is winning a national championship. Which is great and I appreciate that, but we've gotta get there first.

Secondly, we need to defend and rebound. We need to rotate, hedge, and box out. We need to grab loose balls and rebound, create steals for easy transition buckets (which is the most underrated part of UCLA basketball - the ability to create turnovers and score easy buckets). If we ever developed the defensive mentality of the past few squads, this could be our most successful team.

And that's the most befuddling part of this squad. It's quite obvious in our blowouts that this team has talent, particularly offensively. Drago and Roll give us legitimate 3-point shooters that we've never had before (Brian Morrison notwithstanding). DC is the best penetrator we've ever had. Holiday is the best passer of the Howland era. Shipp has been the best he's ever been in the past few weeks. We don't get a whole lot of O from down low, but we also made it to Final Fours with Ryan Hollins and Lorenzo Mata as our centers. As long as we attack the rim, we'll make up for a lack of inside presence.

Thirdly, and lastly, the seniors have to take us there. With all the hype surrounding the freshmen and the emergence of Drago, it's been easy to forget just how many games Josh Shipp, Darren Collison, and Alfred Aboya have won. It's their team, it's their time.

7) So how far do we go?

Well, this is a tough question, isn't it. VCU is a good team, enough to become a popular upset pick. But before everyone rides that bandwagon, realize that we are UCLA. We win games. We win lots of games, and we do it with heart. I honestly believe that if we want it badly enough, we are going to end up back in the Final Four.

The truth is that we've been spoiled by the last few seasons, where we breezed through everything. Fans have become frustrated, disillusioned with this season, which is understandable. But the road isn't always easy. It's how we stick with it that counts.

Okay, all the wishy-washy talk aside, is it a legitimate possibility to go far? The answer is a resounding yes. Check those Kenpom rankings again. We're #9 for a reason. We have the upside and potential to beat a lot of very good teams. That said, this #6 seed is a tough one to swallow, though we really didn't beat anybody good enough to convince the committee otherwise.

VCU has been hyped, but we are more talented and better. If UCLA comes out focused, talent should prevail. Villanova is a good team, but I honestly feel that we're better. Scottie Reynolds is a very good player and Dante Cunningham would provide our bigs a bit of a hard time. But we're not so shabby ourselves. The obvious pitfall there is the travel to Philly in Nova country, which will be extremely difficult, and not a fact to be taken lightly. But in the end, basketball is played on the court. Better teams win. Although I must admit, with this squad, road travel frightens me more than usual.

Beyond the first weekend, Duke is a very good team, but we can handle them. Pitt would be a real tough challenge, because Blair could eat us alive inside. But possible.

Anything is possible.