Baseball Economics

While home over Thanksgiving break, I was listening to KNBR when Ralph Barbieri raised a very interesting question that I'd never really considered. He asked why we, as fans, care about how much money our front office spends. Shouldn't we be happy when our management shells out the big bucks to obtain players they think will help us win?

The answer is that every fan feels like he can run the team in his own way, and often make better decisions than the current GM in place. This is definitely not true, especially if you're a fan of say, the Oakland Athletics. I guarantee you that you could not run the team any better than Billy Beane has magically run the squad. The man is simply a genius.

On the other hand, while I'm not naive enough to think I could run the Giants any better than Brian Sabean, I do have to question the current plan of action. It's fairly apparent that the team has been morgaging the future for the past 8 years in an attempt to win now with Barry Bonds. After all, the Giants farm system has been completely gutted of the few prospects it hass had (Jason Grilli, Kurt Ainsworth, Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, etc.) . The last homegrown everyday position-player Giant (until Pedro Feliz this season)? Bill Mueller, who conveniently retired this offseason. Yikes.

So while it's easy to see that a team of 40-somethings really cannot be counted on to lead a team everyday, the bigger issue is where the direction of the franchise is headed. The Giants have done everything possible to distance themselves from Barry Bonds this offseason - throwing over $100 million to Carlos Lee, $50 million to Gary Matthews, Jr., $34 million at Juan Pierre - only to be rebuked each time. Luckily, Sabean has gotten bailed out each time from making a stupid decision; he's gotten lucky each time not to commit a large chunk of money to players that just aren't that valauble.

That's the dangerous proposition with this year's fairly weak free agent class. Adam Eaton, he who has never won more than 11 games in a season, just picked up $24 million over 3 years. Juan Pierre, a singles hitter with declining wheels just received a five year contract at $9 million per. Gary Matthews, a perennial underachieving bust, had one great contract season, and was able to rake in $10 million a year until he turns 37. And while Carlos Lee is a one of the most underrated bats in baseball, the Giants offered him more money than they ever paid the most dominant player of the modern era (a certain #25).

The bucks don't stop there. Utilitymen Frank Catalanatto and Mark DeRosa each raked in $13 million contracts that extend until their mid-30's; Alex Gonzalez, he who cannot hit, pulled in a similar deal ($14 million for 3 years). Randy Wolf, who hasn't been completely healthy in a good 3 seasons, picks up $8 million for a year of service. This is simply disgusting.

The Giants will probably end up signing Dave Roberts at ~$5 million a year for 3 seasons, which will give them both a poor man's Randy Winn (Dave Roberts) and a poor man's Dave Roberts (Randy Winn). They will also probably sign Rich Aurilia to a short contract to shore up the infield, and continue making a ludicrous run at Manny Ramirez. What the hell is going on?

Basically, I've supported Sabean the past 8 seasons or so because he really didn't have the flexibility to look towards the future with the Bonds anchor parked in McCovey Cove. Now that the Giants have to face the reality of no #25 in the long-term plans, he's lost his best tradeable pieces (Ray Durham, Jason Schmidt) to free agency and his best future pieces (Liriano, Bonser) to bring in the guys who he can't trade anymore. Sabean stayed the course, stuck to his gameplan, and we Giants fans were lucky enough to root for some excellent teams. But the times have changed, and here's my plan to fix the Giants.

1. Resign Barry Bonds for one more year
While it's obvious that Bonds is a shadow of his former self, he's still a menacing presence in the middle of the lineup if he can be had for around $10 million a season. At the very least, he deserves to be in San Francisco, with the only fans who can truly appreciate his talents, as he makes a run at 755. Barry deserves it and we deserve it. Oh yeah, lest you forget, he had a .999 OPS last season, good for 4th in the NL last season.

2. Give the youngsters a chance
Eliezer Alfonzo, Todd Linden, Kevin Frandsen. These three have bounced between the big leagues the past couple of seasons, but now is the time for them to earn and hang onto their jobs. You can't develop without at-bats, and these three have shown enough potential to earn them. I'd like to see some other young bats get a chance; the problem being that there aren't any.

3. Save money, restock prospects
The details on the free agent market are simply grotesque. The Giants should not get involved with an ugly weight on their payroll similar to the ones given to former players (i.e. Edgardo Alfonzo). Remember the Cleveland Indians of a few years ago? When they sensed their fall was coming, they shipped players like Bartolo Colon and stockpiled prospects like Grady Sizemore. Now they're reloaded and ready to contend in the mighty AL. The Giants need to refrain from quick-fix, big money solutions, and attempt to stockpile young talent instead. How they will obtain such young talent, I have absolutely no idea, since they have no tradeable pieces left.

Yes, these will bring some ugly times. But as the Giants will need to face the light sometime, and they can continue to develop the arms that will help make this rotation one of the best in the NL in a few seasons (Cain, Lowry, Sanchez, etc.) . And saving money now will enable the Giants to actually sign their own players worth retaining (Cain, Alfonzo, etc.) as well as making serious runs for players that actually are worth the money.

Just don't spend the money on the Adam Eatons of the world. That's the easy way out.

Everything Wrong With DumpDorrell.com

This post has been a long time coming. Honestly, I don't think this is an issue that should gain more attention than the state of the UCLA football team, but fans are quick to point the finger and overshadow the unit as a whole. And so it's time to finally tackle a topic that is at the forefront of the minds of all Bruin football fans: whether or not Coach Karl Dorrell should be fired.

First, let's take a look at reasonable expectations of how UCLA would perform this season. To this point, I expected a 6-4 season - the team had an easy early schedule, but difficult road games at Oregon, Notre Dame, and Cal. A win at one of these schools would be a great accomplishment, and I felt the Bruins had enough in them to pull out one of these games. Of course, UCLA was just 62 seconds away from pulling off its biggest football victory of this decade at Notre Dame.

More importantly, I also expected the Bruins to lose a game they probably shouldn't. And there have been two such losses - a tough road loss to a challenging Washington team, and a bad home loss to a talented Washington State team. In the Pac-10 this season, this type of parity has become the norm - Arizona over Cal, Oregon State over USC, etc. No single team seems to want to run away with the title.

Why should we expect such "mediocrity" from these Bruins? Well, this is a young team. Sure, much of the defense is built of upperclassmen, but they've had to buy into an entirely new system with a new defensive coordinator. On the other side of the ball, there's another new offensive coordinator calling the shots, with an inexperienced quarterback and a backfield of guys stepping into main roles for the first time. No receiver has ever been the defined go-to guy and the offensive line has three guys starting who didn't last season.

With young teams, there will be great highs (Notre Dame) and awful lows (well, Notre Dame). But it's important to keep a level-head on the season as a whole, whether the team has really underachieved relative to its expectations. Honestly, this team isn't Cal, or USC, or Oregon. It doesn't have the talent or the experience. Part of that will keep the team hungry to win, the other part will keep it from actually winning.

So hopefully, it's apparent that these Bruins have performed more or less to expectations. I'm not saying that we, as fans, or they, as players and coaches, should be satisfied with how the season has gone. Obviously, it would've been great not to fall flat and lose against beatable teams, or to actually close out a win that would've completely reshaped the season. But it happens.

Unfortunately, not everyone is seeing this situation so clearly. An inordinate amount of blame is being placed squarely on Karl Dorrell's shoulders because, well, I'm not really sure why. As you scour the message boards on BruinsNation and BruinReportOnline, or read what blogs like DumpDorrell.com have to say, Karl Dorrell has been criticized for everything from playcalling to perpetual mediocrity to not yelling and frowning enough.

First, playcalling. Dorrell has taken a lot of heat for being too conservative in his playcalls, particularly in that infamous Notre Dame game. Without giving the blanket excuse that OC Tom Svoboda calls the plays, it's obvious that Dorrell should know what's going on and the final calls should go through him. So let's take a look at what went down in the Notre Dame game.

UCLA has the ball with around 3 minutes left, deep in its own territory and clinging to a 17-14 advantage. The defense has absolutely stifled Brady Quinn and the Irish all day. The offense has been scrappy, generally ineffective but coming through with a couple of big plays. The Bruins decide to run the ball three straight times, eventually punting the ball with a little over a minute left and over half a field to defend due to their inability to get the game-clinching first down.

Personally, what would I do? I would've run the ball twice, then sent Pat Cowan on a playaction rollout just trying to get the first down. Cowan is not always accurate, but he's fairly mobile and it would've gotten them a shot at a game-clincher. On the road, this is huge. You don't want the home team on the field with the ball and time left.

Then again, what happens in my situation? Maybe Cowan ends up throwing a pick, and Notre Dame has a short field and plenty of time to score. Maybe the throw is incomplete, and 30 precious seconds do NOT run off the clock. Maybe everyone ends up yelling at Dorrell for taking a risk with our most ineffective unit instead of just letting our defense win the game.

That's not what happened. Dorrell decided to leave his best unit on the field at the biggest moment. And is that such a bad idea? I don't think so. The defense had shut down Brady Quinn & Co. all day long, why wouldn't they stop them for just one more minute? In the end, you want your best players against their best players. Strength against strength. Unfortunately, their strength won.

Perpetual mediocrity. That would be defined as unending .500 seasons. Critics will say that last year's 10 win season was a fluke, that the Bruins were lucky to escape with that many. And hey, this is a valid point. Half of those wins were remarkable comebacks. But 10 wins is 10 wins, and there aren't a whole lot of coaches that say they've won 10 games. Trust me, I've seen mediocrity. I've seen coaches that can't coach. I've seen 10 loss seasons. This is not the end of the world.

Lastly, and most ridiculously, are the degradations of Karl Dorrell's personality. Honestly, what does Karl Dorrell's relatively impassive demeanor have to do with how successful our football team is? Okay, so he doesn't jump up and down when we make a huge play or when the refs make a questionable call. He's also not the one to lose his head uncontrollably when the proverbial crap hits the fan. That's just how he is. He's a calm man, a steady man, and his personality should in no way determine whether or not he's a good coach. There are plenty of coaches who yell and scream and show all kinds of "emotion." That sure as hell doesn't mean they're any good (i.e. Jim Mora, Sr.).

A coach is not a cheerleader. He molds a program into a system that fits how he plans to win ballgames. A coach is not out there as a figurehead to embody what emotions a FAN feels. He's there to give his club an opportunity to win. A coach has the responsibility to inspire, yes, but this is done in different ways, and every man is ultimately true to his personality. And most Bruin fans will mock Mike Stoops of Arizona for being a whining, crying "coach" who complains all day long. Is that what you want? Someone who complains more? Criticizing Karl Dorrell's coaching abilities because of his personality is just plain stupid.

This is NOT a flat-out defense of Karl Dorrell. Karl Dorrell does have his faults. His clock management skills are quite poor; he never seems able to call timeouts when he needs to in time-crucial situations. Also, an undercriticized part of this year's Bruins squad has been the excessive amount of penalties on both sides of the ball. Lazy penalties, stupid penalties, all kinds of penalties. Dorrell should take the heat on some of these; he needs to keep his players in line and knowledgeable of their actions. And unfortunately, this has not been a one-time problem, but rather a recurring one week after week.

However, what really ticks me off (or as Peter Griffin would say, "grinds my gears"), is how pitifully ignorant much of the UCLA fanbase is. And that is where the title of this entry applies.

Before the game today, Nick and I were walking through the regular tailgaters to the stadium when we saw two middle-aged men wearing "Dump Dorrell" shirts. Needless to say, it was difficult for the both of us to simply stop in our tracks and throw down right there (no, I've never thrown down before, but it was damn tempting). How can you honestly wear that to a football game? Are you rooting for your alma mater to fall? Because in my mind, if you're wearing a shirt like that, you want us to fail. You want this team to lose so that YOU can see a different coach, even if you don't know what Dorrell has done wrong besides lose very loseable games.

This is the type of sick, pathetic behavior I've come to expect from many fairweather Los Angeles fans. What exactly goes through these minds? Is it, "hey, we've been losing a few games. God, it's that damn coach's fault, let's get rid of him so that we can win again! Even better, let me show everyone how much I disapprove of him by wearing a shirt that says I don't like him! Maybe we can lose and then he'll get replaced sooner!"

What kind of fan are you? You'll also probably give me some babble about firing Dorrell as being "good for the program" and a move that needs to happen for "long-term success." And who do you, Mr. Know-it-all, propose to replace Dorrell with? Do you realize how long it usually takes a football program to be rebuilt and restructured? Will your replacement even be better?

And you! You want to see your team lose? How can you honestly call yourself a supporter of a team, if you want it to fail?

See, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. While I might not agree with why people think Dorrell should be axed, that's their right to have an opinion for such misguided reasons (couldn't resist, sorry). However, UCLA football deserves your support. It's not fair to the players, to the coaches, to everyone involved for you to give up and call for someone's head to fix it all. As long as we're playing, you're cheering. You better as hell want us to win, or you can go sit in the visiting section while I yell at you about how UCLA is better than your school.

The only thing worse than being a fairweather fan who only shows up when our team is good and leaves early regardless of the score (trust me, there are plenty) has got to be the traitor who doesn't support his own team. We can discuss whether or not to fire Dorrell at the end of the season. For now, support our squad.

Of course it's easy to criticize others, but what novel suggestions do I have? All in all, I'm not exactly pleased with Dorrell's coaching. He definitely has his weakness, most of which are entirely unrelated to what he's currently being bashed for. And I, like everyone else, think we could have at least one more win right now.

I don't, however, think Dorrell's coaching has fundamental flaws. It's tough to say "give him time" in the win-now environment, especially when he's had several seasons to establish himself, but that is the way I feel. If his team quits on him and comes out flat in the last few games, then maybe he's lost control of the ship. If he keeps fighting and the team develops, then I don't see anything wrong with Dorrell's performance. At any rate, it's best to be rational and take an objective view from afar (at the end of the season).

You, Mr. DumpDorrell, can hold your peace for just a few more weeks.